Presenter: David HughesDavid Hughes, Geoscientist, Independent Energy Policy Analyst & Formerly with Geological Survey of Canada

Politicians in the US and Canada have promoted LNG exports as a way to monetize the perceived gas bounty made possible by the so-called “shale revolution”. However, a review of major US shale gas plays suggests production is not sustainable at low prices and high volumes in the medium- and long-term. Several US shale plays are already past peak production and the recent collapse in oil prices suggests that other plays will not be far behind. In Canada, gas production is down 20% from its all-time peak in 2002. Ramping up BC production to supply five LNG terminals would require spectacular growth, from 409% to 633%, and the drilling of between 38,000 and 49,000 new wells at a cost of up to $432 billion. These projects are vulnerable both from a lowered price in export destinations and from higher domestic gas prices. If the nascent BC LNG industry gets off the ground its economic impact is likely to be far less than purported, its environmental impact significant, and its impact on future Canadian energy security worrisome.

David Hughes is a geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada and the U.S., including 32 years spent with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager, where he headed unconventional gas and coal research. His research focus is on unconventional fuels, primarily shale gas and tight oil, but also coalbed methane and other unconventional sources including oil sands, coal gasification and gas hydrates. Hughes is currently President of Global Sustainability Research Inc., a consultancy dedicated to research on energy and sustainability issues. Clients include a range of energy companies, investment firms and non-profits.

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Reception to follow